Bitcoin Is Macro, but Not ‘Correlated’ in the Way You Think

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Noelle Acheson is the former head of research at CoinDesk and Genesis Trading. This article is excerpted from her Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, which focuses on the overlap between the shifting crypto and macro landscapes. These opinions are hers, and nothing she writes should be taken as investment advice.

I often hear that thrown out in conversations as a dismissive way of saying that it isn’t really an “alternative” asset at all, and that all this mumbo jumbo about it being external to the broader economy is just"hopium." But very few who say this have actually dug into the data or thought about the reasoning behind that claim .

Imagine two assets that are clones of each other. How much they move independently will be exactly the same as how much they move together, so the ratio between the two factors will be 1. A correlation of -1 means they move perfectly in the opposite direction. A correlation of 0 means there is no obvious relationship between the two.

Another frequent trap is to assume that a high or low correlation can explain behavior. To some extent this is true – but more often than not, the relationship is coincidental even if related. Ice cream sales and cases of sunburn are highly correlated, but one does not cause or explain the other.

 

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