Is Bitcoin’s bull run over? What historical trends tell us

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On-chain metrics are now suggesting that Bitcoin may be nearing a cycle top, with potential for a significant downturn.

Bitcoin’s recent on-chain metrics indicated a potential market top, with a cycle peak similar to previous years.was experiencing a downturn at press time, reversing its earlier rally above $63,000.

ne significant sign is the behavior of Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder inflation rate, which Glassnode monitors.The LTH inflation rate, which measures the annualized rate at which long-term holders are selling their Bitcoin relative to new coins mined, has seen a sustained increase over the past two years.

Recent data has shown a sharp rise in the Dormancy Z-score, particularly in April 2024, which could imply that older coins are moving at a rate suggestive of a cycle top.“Peaks in this metric typically see cycle tops just three months later. Well, it’s now three months later. The price has only gone down, and the Dormancy Z-Score peak remains with a structure very comparable to the 2017 and 2021 tops.

 

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