later joins the show to elaborate why he believes the US economy isn't a textbook case of being in a Goldilocks environment, but is actually reflective of a"Winnie the Pooh" environment.We are giving you the ultimate investing playbook, help tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money.
He's kind of like really voicing investor sentiment right now is we'll see what's going to happen because there's a lot of uncertainty, even though the market right now is reflecting strength, there is still the risk of further price cuts ahead and there is still further question on fundamentals.I wouldn't necessarily be overly concerned that the labor market is, is heating back up as a result of these, these data.
When you take a look at the dow, we're also looking at gains there up just around 89 points as of right now.But again, we're seeing a bit of cooling here as yields pull back after brushing up against that four or five level yesterday.Financials not too far behind, but you've got consumer discretionary by far the leader in today's trading action.
Are we slowing to something that's more worrying, you know, stalling out in the economy or perhaps even a recession or is it going from a very robust growth uh environment that we had last year back down to just something that's far more normal?I think if you look at at this morning's jolts data, you mentioned job openings were higher.The quits rate has stabilized at somewhat low levels over the past six months.
You know, that is being driven in part by the drawdown in excess savings that we've had, particularly at the bottom half of the income distribution. And the labor market is still chugging along here, you know, despite the slowing that we've seen, so there is definitely some divergences in the data that we're seeing.
But when you take into account what he is saying or what he did say, the fact that the labor market is cooling, the fact that he is very much encouraged by some of the progress that we have seen on inflation.Yeah, our baseline is that you get one cut this year and then it happens in December. The other way to get to a rate cut is that you have a weakening in the labor market that's unexpected.
And so really, they'll be data dependent, you know, essentially if they get very good inflation data over the next few months, that will certainly improve the prospects for a September rate cut.Biden and Trump have both both embraced that.Matt, yeah, I think from an impact on the economy perspective, it really matters.
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