Ethereum spot ETFs will accumulate over $15 billion in net inflows within their first 18 months of hitting the U.S. market, predicted crypto asset manager Bitwise on Wednesday.
Still, the proportional differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum ETP sizes in other jurisdictions are almost identical. In Europe, Bitcoin ETPs hold €4.6 billion to Ethereum’s €1.3 billion. In Canada, Bitcoin ETPs control CAD 4.9 billion, while Ethereum-based funds own CAD $1.4 billion. Assuming a conservative ratio 78% BTC, 22% ETH as seen in in Europe, this puts Hougan’s estimate down to $18 billion for Ethereum ETF inflows.The estimate must also correct for the Bitcoin ETF market’s “carry trade,” Hougan said.” to earn risk-free yield, by longing the spot market while shorting the futures market. Since Bitcoin futures are often directionally long-biased, yields are usually quite high for this trade.
With $15 billion of inflows, Hougan said the Ethereum ETF would be a historic success. Only four ETFs launched since January 2020 have gathered inflows at that level.
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