Bitcoin is likely to remain within the current trading range until a more favorable macroeconomic environment arises. Taking into account the current market conditions, such as profit margins, leverage, and the distribution of coin ages, the landscape suggests a more expressive rally within this cycle.Over the past couple of months, Bitcoin has been trading without much upward or downward movement.
These periods usually witnessed a flood of new capital into the market, often ending with peaks driven by retail investors’ fear of missing out ., the year-on-year change in M2 has returned to normal levels early this year. This change followed consistent inflation data in the US, which reduced market expectations for interest rate cuts from five to two in 2024.
On the supply side, the selling pressure has lessened as long-term holders have seen price stability around $60k, and short-term holders have reduced sales due to decreased profitability. In such a scenario, it’s likely that the market will continue its sideways movement until triggers emerge that can prompt a decisive change. The current market conditions, including factors like profitability, leverage, and the distribution of coin ages, suggest there’s potential for a more substantial rally within this cycle.
The most likely scenario is that Bitcoin will remain within this trading range until a more favorable macroeconomic environment emerges, possibly centered around the anticipated first US interest rate cut in September. Such an environment could ignite a new wave of demand and subsequent rally, marking the peak of the cycle.Bitcoin Price Recovers After Fed Announces No Rate Hike At FOMCOne Weekly Email Can Change Your Crypto Life.
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