The majority of the options set to expire are bitcoin contracts, with a notional value of $6.35 billion. The put-call ratio ahead of Friday's end-of-month expiry is elevated at 0.68 — an increase in the amount of puts versus calls when compared to the previous week. Ether options with a notional value of $3.08 billion are also set to expire. However, the condition of ether options reveals a significantly lower number of puts versus calls than the bitcoin ratio.
Based on Deribit data, the largest open interest leading up to the year-end expiry consists of calls at a $100,000 strike price. This bullish trade indicates that derivatives players anticipate Bitcoin's value to surpass this price by December. "We have seen a flurry of bitcoin options activity around the year-end expiry as investors begin to position for a post-halving resumption of the uptrend and a breakout from this two month long consolidation," QCP Capital analysts said.
The sentiment inferred from the positioning of options for the end-of-year expiry corresponds with Tuesday's analyst note from Standard Chartered, which fixed an end-of-2024 target price of $150,000 for bitcoin and $8,000 for ether. Options are derivative contracts that give a trader the right but not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. A call option gives the right to buy, and a put offers the right to sell. It is assumed that a trader who buys put options is implicitly bearish on the market, while a call buyer is bullish.Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data.
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