Bitcoin's halving won't see a 600% return this year — so adjust your strategy

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Bitcoin's price volatility for the last 30 days stands around 4% — down from nearly 18% in April 2013. It's starting to look more like a traditional equity.

Bitcoin's price volatility for the last 30 days stands around 4% — down from nearly 18% in April 2013. It's starting to look more like a traditional equity.) halving and it appears the ETF mania has accelerated the timeline of its arrival. Indeed, we have just a couple of weeks left before the big event. So it’s no surprise that the halving is all crypto investors and media can talk about right now.

To understand where the price of Bitcoin is going from here, it is the asset’s volatility that we need to look at more closely. Over recent months, we have seen the anticipated drawdowns as pre-halving excitement builds. Yet these drawdowns have been anemic by previous cycles’ standards. This time, Bitcoin’s corrections have been far shallower, not exceeding 25%. Indeed, the latest drawdown was only around 15% before BTC bounced back once again toward the $70,000 mark.

So what does this mean for investors hoping to profit from the halving? They’ll have to think a lot more like the traditional equity investor than the crypto degen. They’ll have to swap Messari for Morningstar to gauge the ebbs and flows of spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management. They’ll have to keep one eye firmly fixed on what long-term holders are doing, because they are now the ones in the driving seat.

 

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