There is little doubt who will win the El Salvador presidential election when voters go to the polls on Feb. 4, 2024. Incumbent Nayib Bukele has the initiative heading into the vote, having made a series of eye-catching decisions since coming to power in 2019, such as making bitcoin legal tender, issuing policy through social media, and most significantly, declaring a nationwide “state of emergency” in response to gang violence. The Bitcoin experiment has all but failed.
But that hasn’t dented his prospects of victory. The reason: A majority of Salvadorans feel safer than they have in years. Under Bukele’s authoritarian rule, the homicide rate has officially decreased, many street vendors no longer pay a gang tax, and taxi drivers aren’t as worried about hijackings or assault. And that has led to Bukele’s widespread popularity across the country. In an early January 2024 poll, the incumbent was ahead by 71%. He is, in other words, a shoo-in. But this sense of safety has come at a cos