at the Swan Pacific Bitcoin festival was cleverly titled, “Are halving price cycles bullshit?” Throughout the discussion, host and founder of the Bitcoin Layer Nik Bhatia asked Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel, Swan CIO Ralph Zagury and Swan product manager Andy Edstrom to share their thoughts on whether the Bitcoin halving is truly a bullish event or just another narrative that novice investors buy into.
While previous performance does provide some compelling evidence for what might happen in the next halving, questioning long held assertions and price expectations for a high volatility asset like Bitcoin is probably something every investor should do more often — especially when considering the number of bearish events that have occurred in the past two years.
Each panelist, including host Bhatia seemed to agree that while the halving may possess some market moving capacity, it could be diminishing over time. According to Bhatia, “We think that Bitcoin price is going to be higher in the future, and by extension we are applying a lens of investment as we’re investing in Bitcoin.”
According to Zagury, “a thing about Bitcoin which is super curious, and I think there isn’t any other asset class like this out there, is that most of the time, Bitcoin is moving either sideways, in terms of number of days, it's either sideways or down.”Bitcoin’s time spent trading in a rangebound band or in a downtrend is what Zagury says “makes it really hard to hodl, right, because it means you're going to have months and years of pain and you’re going to have days of glory.
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