The EU imposed another set of sanctions on Belarus, targeting the Lukashenka regime for rerouting dual-use goods to Russia for its war effort.
Then a new problem appeared: Many of the sanctioned components that Russia requires for its war effort -- in particular, dual-use goods that can be used for both civilian and military purposes -- were being rerouted via Belarus. The latest round of sanctions on Belarus is partly meant to address this problem.
To understand why the final sanctions were weaker than originally envisioned, and why they took so long to come to fruition, it is helpful to understand two considerable drivers of EU policy. The first is the importance of the so-called Global South -- countries with growing political and economic clout in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The second is classic Brussels horse-trading on political issues that are, at best, only tangentially linked.
Crucially, allowing Belarusian exports of potash would mean the shipments being transported via Lithuanian ports, something which is deeply unpalatable to most Lithuanian politicians who tend to be the fiercest critics of the Lukashenka regime. Diplomats with knowledge of the matter but who are not authorized to speak on the record told me that Lisbon drove a hard bargain on the derogation issue because UN Secretary-General and former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Guterres is particularly sensitive to the concerns of the Global South.
To show it meant business, Spain pushed for the EU to green-light the Post-Cotonou Agreement -- a pact between the EU and 79 African, Caribbean, and Pacific countries that had been only provisionally agreed upon.