The chances of approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the United States have now increased to 65% from a mere 1% just a couple of months ago.
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart said in a recent statement that the chances of approval for a Bitcoin ETF have increased significantly over the past month owing to various new developments around the crypto market and the refiling of ETF applications by the likes of Blackrock.
Seyffart noted that a lot will depend on the timing of the Grayscale case dates and their recent boost in approval will depend on Grayscale's victory over the SEC in Federal court. He added that Grayscale’s win against SEC could set trigger a series of simultaneous approval for all spit Bitcoin ETF filings by the end of the fourth quarter later this year.
The lynchpin for this current thesis is a Grayscale victory over the SEC in Federal court. Which COULD set things up for a wave of SEC approvals sometime in the 4th quarter? All depends on how much Gensler wants to fight here.Seyffart believes that the BlackRock and the Coinbase surveillance sharing agreement drastically changed the spot Bitcoin ETF analysis. Not to mention the ripple case which is less important but still relevant.
The spot Bitcoin ETF filing spree began with BlackRock's filing with the SECGov on June 16. WisdomTreeFunds, InvescoUS and Valkyrie, along with several other institutional giants, followed suit.
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