- As the cryptocurrency market consolidates following the recent rise in prices sparked by the XRP ruling and multiple spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications, traders are now looking for the next catalyst that will generate the momentum necessary to reignite bull market conditions.
In the near term, Ismael said Bitcoin’s price “will likely continue consolidating following the severe pullback we saw in 2022,” but noted that an “Upside move to the $40K level is a reasonable expectation as many of the headwinds facing crypto last year, specifically the macro ones, have largely subsided for all risk assets, including crypto.”
With the BTC emission rate set to drop from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block, Ismael said that miners would be the most affected group. “Halving events make it increasingly more challenging to operate as a miner due to this negative impact,” he said. Switching gears to the topic of the recent spot BTC ETF applications and whether the halving factored into their timing, Ismael said, “BlackRock, as a highly sophisticated asset management firm, has likely done its homework regarding the cyclical nature of BTC and crypto markets.”
“Historically, post-halving periods see the greatest upside in BTC price, and exponential gains, particularly the 18 months following the halving,” he added. When asked if the diminishing block reward will result in the 4-year halving cycle starting to have less effect on the broader crypto market, Ismael said, “The broader crypto market is still in its infancy within a multi-decade structural growth trend. BTC is more likely than not to remain the bellwether asset for this space for the foreseeable future, at least until such time many more crypto applications are born with robust and sustainable use cases.
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