After Song said onstage at that 2018 conference that there wouldn't be any significant decentralized applications in five years, Lubin offered to bet “any amount” that he was wrong.about the terms of a wager: For Lubin to win, five or more applications built atop Ethereum needed to hold onto 10,000 daily and 100,000 monthly active users for at least six months in any 12-month period before May 23, 2023.
Two blockchain data firms say five decentralized apps met the specified usage levels over the past half-decade – the bare minimum for a Lubin win. But there might be some wiggle room over whether the five names in the datasets qualify as dapps.So, if Lubin was the victor, he just squeaked by; it wasn't a blowout. And he might’ve lost, depending on whom you ask.
If the conditions were met, Song would pay 810.8 ETH to Lubin. If not, Lubin would pay Song 69.74 BTC. Each bet was worth $500,000 at the time. According to blockchain data firms Artemis and Nansen, the five applications that broke both the 10,000 daily active and 100,000 monthly active user marks in the agreed-on time period were Circle, OpenSea, Tether, Uniswap and wrapped ETH .
Circle and Tether don’t count as dapps, Nansen data journalist Martin Lee said, mainly because “most users can’t interact with it freely.”
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