The question of whether inflation has peaked is passe for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The answer is yes, according to data that show the S&P 500, Wall Street's equity index and a benchmark for risk assets worldwide, tends to bottom out and rally when the consumer price index peaks. Bitcoin has historically moved more or lessThe chart by Steno Research and Macrobond compares the U.S. CPI trajectory from 2018 to date with its 1972-1984 path and adds the S&P 500's performance during the 1970s.
The U.S. CPI's trend from 2018 to date looks analogous to the pop and drop of the early 1970s, meaning further deceleration in inflation and a revival in risk assets could be on the cards. Many investment banks and financial commentators on Twitter have penciled in a continued slide in risk assets in the first half of this year that will force the Fed to abandon policy tightening.to 7.7% in November 2022 from a four-decade high of 9.1% in June. The Fed stepped down to a 50 basis-point rate increase in December after delivering four consecutive 75 basis-point hikes. The bank, however, signaled a higher rate peak in the range of 5% to 5.25%.
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