CPI days have been among the most volatile for stocks this year. Here's what to expect ahead of Tuesday's report

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Many investors are hoping that beaten-down U.S. stocks will finish 2022 with a “Santa Claus rally” after the S&P 500 logged back-to-back monthly gains for the first time in more than a year in October and November, according to FactSet data.

Many investors are hoping that beaten down U.S. stocks will finish 2022 with a “Santa Claus rally” after the S&P 500 logged back-to-back monthly gains for the first time in more than a year in October and November, according to FactSet data.

The Fed will also release updated economic projections, including its “dot plot” of forecasts for changes in the Fed funds rate.Beyond the Fed, there’s a smattering of other central-bank meetings set for this week, including the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank. More rate hike are expected there, too.

Market moves on CPI days have been particularly exaggerated this year. Already, the S&P 500 has recorded both its biggest daily gain, and its biggest daily loss, for the year so far, on the day that monthly CPI data were released. Intraday volatility in response to CPI data has become particularly severe in recent months. When the September numbers were released on Oct. 13, stocks staged a massive intraday swing, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging nearly 1,500 points from peak to trough, one of the biggest intraday swings for the blue-chip average in recent memory, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

“Market participants may continue to reduce their risk exposure in case consumer prices confirm the picture painted by the PPI indices,” Pissouros added.

 

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