Macro traders expecting a continued decline in bitcoin should look at the positioning in the derivatives market, otherwise they risk being caught off guard by a potential short squeeze, a rapid move higher driven by bears abandoning their bearish bets.
Open interest, or the number of open positions in bitcoin's perpetual futures market, rose to 256,752 BTC early this week, the second-highest daily tally in 365 days, surpassed. by Jan. 4's total of 260,000 BTC, data provided by Arcane Research shows. So, now if bitcoin turns higher, the cost of holding shorts will become a burden for traders holding bearish positions. And they could offload their bearish bets, putting upward pressure on prices. Bitcoin was last seen trading near 2% higher on the day near $38,900, according to CoinDesk data.
"The sentiment, funding rates, and futures basis [premium] suggest that shorts are the most confident. Thus, a short squeeze is possibly on the table," Lunde added.
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