The CPI and Forex: How CPI Data Affects Currency Prices

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The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:

being set by policymakers, to help dampen the economy and subdue the inflationary trend. In turn, the higher a country’s interest rate, the more likely its currency will strengthen. Conversely, countries with lower interest rates often mean weaker currencies.

The release and revision of CPI figures can produce swings in a currency’s value against other currencies, meaning potentially favorable volatility from which skilled traders can benefit. Also, CPI data is often recognized as a useful gauge of the effectiveness of the economic policy of governments in response to the condition of their domestic economy, a factor that forex traders can consider when assessing the likelihood of currency movements., for forex traders to get a clearer picture of inflationary pressures.

Similar to any major release, it may be beneficial to avoid having an open position immediately before. Traders might consider waiting for several minutes after the release before looking for possible trades, sinceBelow is a chart displaying the monthly inflation rates for the US. For the latest month, expectations are set at 1.6% inflation compared to last year’s data. If CPI is released higher or lower than expectations this news event does have the ability to influence the market.

Chart to show US inflation levels in 2018/19. Source: TradingEconomics.com. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, a 2018/19 example chart for which is below. If CPI is released away from expectations, it is reasonable to believe this may be the catalyst to drive the Index to fresh highs, or to rebound from resistance.

 

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