They may be facing a barrage of criticism, but the perennial stock-to-flow Bitcoin price models — and their creator, PlanB — refuse to give up., BTC/USD should ideally be trading at above $97,000 this week, but reality has other ideas.
This has provided for contention — stock-to-flow uses two standard deviation bands around a key trajectory to monitor price, and Bitcoin currently sits between them. While in fact nowhere near invalid, the model has courted claims that its range of acceptable price action is too wide to be useful. “To be clear: I have no doubt whatsoever that bitcoin S2FX is correct and #bitcoin will tap $100K-288K before Dec2021,” hethose claims, stressing that the standard deviation bands would dictate any technical invalidation. As such, stock-to-flow and its spin-off stock-to-flow cross-asset , both remain in play.countered“IMO we are in the exact same spot as March 2019 when I published S2F model: at the low end of the 1sd band. DYOR. Look at the chart. Your choice.
Concerns have subsided, meanwhile, following the flushing out of excessive leverage across derivatives markets in the $42,000 rout., funding rates are neutral at $50,000, a conspicuous change from just several weeks ago, and confidence is building that sustained price upside can now continue as a result.
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