With market volatility rising ahead of November’s U.S. presidential and Congressional elections, investors are parsing what polls and policy proposals mean for everything from energy stocks to shares of private-prison operators.
This anxiety is already showing up in the moves of assets that investors use to protect portfolios andlike futures contracts tied to the Cboe Volatility Index, a gauge of expected stock swings. It is also driving moves in sectors that investors believe would benefit from control of the White House and Congress by one party or the other.
Wall Street typically uses these sectors or other assets that would be impacted by different policies to build broad election baskets associated with each political party. Analysts then gauge the performance of those baskets over time to create probability forecasts of who they expect to win in November.
Dan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Research Partners, said the firm’s baskets for each party signal a roughly 60% chance of Democratic nominee Joe Biden winning and a 40% chance for President Trump. Those forecasts are similar to the Strategas projections from 2016. Those were better chances than some forecasters gave Mr. Trump, but Wall Street often struggles to predict both political outcomes and their impact on asset prices. Stock futures tumbled on election night in 2016 with investors concerned Mr. Trump’s victory would hurt corporate earnings because of his unpredictable policies and advocacy for barriers to trade. Stocks quickly overcame those worries as traders cheered the prospect of tax cuts.
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The how many jobs effected or lost if, the green new deal, that, Biden-Harris ticket favor. How would that affect retirement portfolios and Pension plans?
AmrithRamkumar JoeBiden Difference between Biden and the good Trump is the difference between negative and positive . realDonaldTrump jaredkushner IvankaTrump BJP4India
AmrithRamkumar 😤
They know the HAMMER is being loaded ! Let’s do 5his AMERICA , VOTE at all costs !
It’s a loss of Americas democracy if Biden wins. Oh boy! There is no clarity with him. He said people are not suppose to know what he’s thinking of doing? Our families are at stake, housing, immigration, constitution, economy, jobs, agriculture, automobile et
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Dear Wall Street Journal, investors traders
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They are pricing Kamala
Had a model for this...
Remember all you retail investors with too much time on their hands-- elections do not themselves affect the markets that much.
Buy the dip!
Green energy is a scam.
Nov 3 is election day. Remember 2016.
Good luck!
vote Trump
China will benefit greatly - we will be buying a lot of their solar panels. China must be doing a happy dance.
Hedging...
Not buying coal...gee thought Trump brought that back in spades
Trump is a buffoon, why wouldnt they?
WSJ is pushing for the demise of the middle class being able to retire
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Green!
“Potential” Biden win. 😭😭😭